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ENERGY

serious - SEnsitivity and Risk InfOrmed seismic hazard UpdateS

A research project in the National Nuclear Safety and Waste Management Research Programme 2023-2028

A collaboration project between VTT, University of Helsinki, AFRY and RMCF with various research tasks related to seismic hazards was launched in 2023. The project enabled RMCF to continue the study of dynamic rock mechanics simulations of earthquake rupture and its consequences, i.e., ground motions and off-fault fracture slip. Benchmark exercises and sensitivity analyses were run to further develop the repeatability and reliability of dynamic earthquake simulations. The work was started in 2023 by simulating the SCEC benchmark TPV35, a model of the Parkfield 2004 M6 earthquake (Harris et al., 2009), with complex initial conditions on the fault surface and in the surrounding rock mass. The simulation results were compared to real-world seismic records. The work is continued in 2024 by conducting analyses on how sensitive ground motions and off-fault fracture slips are to small changes in material and fault properties and simulation options.